Europe is grappling with a rapidly evolving security landscape and needs to plan ahead to deal with looming challenges. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has highlighted two critical issues facing the alliance: the debate over military conscription in Europe and the possible threat of a coordinated China-Russia strategy that could spark a global conflict. These concerns, raised in the wake of the NATO summit in The Hague, underscore the alliance’s urgent need to bolster its defenses amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Today, NATO’s European members, as well as Canada, are intensifying efforts to strengthen their militaries. In doing so, they need to address the question of conscription, which, naturally, is a controversial topic and has caused a rift among citizens who are for or against.
Rutte emphasized that decisions on mandatory military service remain the prerogative of individual nations. “Some countries will do it,” he told The New York Times, “others will not do it, but it will mean, in general, paying good salaries for our men and women in uniform.”
Several NATO countries, particularly those on the alliance’s eastern flank, already employ conscription to bolster their defenses against a resurgent Russia. The Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—along with Nordic nations like Finland, Sweden, and Norway, have mandatory service models. Finland, sharing a long border with Russia, requires men to complete military service before joining reserve forces, while Sweden reinstated conscription in 2017. Norway’s selective conscription includes both men and women, and Denmark recently extended its draft to include women for assessment at age 18.
In contrast, countries like the United Kingdom rely on professional volunteer forces, reflecting differing national priorities and strategic cultures. Rutte acknowledged the strain on Europe’s defense industrial base, warning that the continent lacks the capacity to produce the weapons needed to deter adversaries like Russia, which he described as being “on a war footing in every sense.” To address this, NATO has committed to a “five-fold increase” in air defense capabilities, thousands of additional tanks and armored vehicles, and millions of artillery rounds.
The push for increased defense spending, spurred by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that NATO members allocate 5 percent of GDP to defense, marks a significant shift from the previous 2 percent target, which many struggled to meet. This pledge, formalized in June 2025, reflects the alliance’s recognition of the need for a robust, collective response to global threats.
Rutte’s warnings extend beyond Europe’s borders, focusing on the growing partnership between China and Russia as a potential catalyst for a broader conflict. In a stark prediction, he suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping could orchestrate an invasion of Taiwan while enlisting Russian President Vladimir Putin to attack NATO territory in Europe, thereby distracting the West from responding in the Indo-Pacific. “Let’s not be naive about this,” Rutte told *The New York Times*. “If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner… Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow.”
This scenario reflects the deepening ties between Beijing and Moscow, exemplified by their “no limits” partnership and China’s tacit support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Reports from a recent European Union meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi suggest that Beijing views Russia’s invasion as a strategic distraction, allowing China to prepare for a potential move on Taiwan, possibly by 2027. The involvement of North Korean troops and Iranian drones in Ukraine further illustrates the interconnectedness of global conflicts, with Rutte noting, “The Indo-Pacific and your Atlantic are getting more and more interconnected.”
To counter this threat, Rutte stressed the need for NATO to strengthen its deterrence capabilities to dissuade Russia from further aggression in Europe and to curb China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. He called for unified Western action to address Beijing’s large-scale military drills near Taiwan and urged NATO nations to move beyond the outdated 2 percent defense spending target to meet the new 5 percent goal.
As expected, Rutte’s remarks sparked varied responses.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev dismissed the NATO chief’s warnings as alarmist, mockingly suggesting that Rutte’s predictions were the result of “magic mushrooms” and hinting at dire consequences for NATO leaders.
Meanwhile, the alliance’s push for increased defense investments and potential conscription has raised questions about economic and societal impacts, particularly in countries unaccustomed to mandatory service.
NATO will need to address these challenges in a serious manner before it is too late. The balance between national sovereignty over conscription policies and the collective need for a stronger defense posture will be critical. Equally pressing is the alliance’s ability to address the interconnected threats posed by a potential China-Russia alliance, which will undoubtedly reshape global security dynamics.
Preventing World War 3 tomorrow should be a top priority for NATO today. Mandatory service coupled with a direct approach to China and Russia will help stave off any movement toward such a scenario.
